Each one of us has waded through different trends in our
lifetime be it fashion, grooming or technology. The last one is a sucker …
literally. In the information age we live in, one thing we cannot live without
is technology. Technology has become so pervasive that you do not have a choice
anymore whether you want to partake in it or not. It has become a state of
being. Back in the “license raj” days of India, owning a Radio or a Telephone
was a technology trend! Now if you do not own a cellphone you would be labelled
as a freak.
I remember in early 2003, I had a Sony PDA to keep track of
my calendar. I had a sprint mobile. Apple had just launched its iPOD and I was
contemplating to buy it but deferred my decision as I wanted a single device
which will have all the capabilities of my Mobile phone, my PDA and the ability
to hear my favorite numbers. I did not have the technology capability to build
such a device nor the business acumen to invest in a company like Apple. I
would have been rolling in dollars by now!
Interestingly, in just less than a decade we have smart
phones with far more features than I could have imagined then, all bundled in
one ubiquitous device and the size of the device is shrinking by the day. Now
we have difficulty in choosing the device that will fit our pocket (pun
intended). So is the current technology trend is in choosing Apple, Samsung or
Android phones? Or is it all about moving from 2G to 3G to 4G to 5G or whatever
that is? Or is it about choosing capacitive screens over resistive screens? Or
is it about motion technologies or Pinch technologies? Is it about Google
Glasses or Goggles? Where is the technology heading? As much as the technology
is empowering it’s becoming increasingly confounding. Why is this happening?
What is that we are looking for that is make us change our handheld devices
like shirts? Is it a fashion or is it a technological trend?
So what is technology trend really?
Let’s go back.
Remember Moore's law? In 1965 Moore,
co-founder of Intel, observed that over the history of computing hardware, the
number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two
years. Over and Over again he has been proved right. The world has seen computers
shrinking in size from what used to be the size of a one bedroom apartment to
the one that now fits in our palm. So is this the technology trend? Partially
…yes.
Tools that had a positive impact on human race has always been
wholeheartedly embraced by humanity. Industries and Locomotives helped in mass
production and speedy delivery. But to a large extent it gave way to an
economical division, led to a three world theory and created a social wedge
between the west and the east. Words like “Developed Countries”, “Third world
countries” were coined in this era. In 1958, the U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis added “Information Technology” as a category of business investment.
Though nobody would have envisaged then, the “Digital Technology” has become a
game changer. It has turned the old social order upside down. Old Brick and
Mortar enterprises have been shaken to their foundation as the digital age
Tsunami hit them. The hitherto “Third World countries” are finding the digital
technology to be a field leveler and it is helping them to catch up with the so
called “Developed” world at a fast pace. The
world is Flat by Thomas L. Friedman is
a must read in this context.
We have slightly digressed from the topic.
Human race by virtue of its intellect has always been thirsting for
knowledge since time immemorial. This knowledge continued to exist in pockets
amongst various races around the world. The internet age and subsequent
digitization of knowledge has helped every individual who is connected to the
digital super highway to express himself or herself. This has suddenly led to
proliferation of information and we are getting bombarded with too much
knowledge. With so much of data points it is increasingly getting difficult to
take decisions and we get in to an “Analysis Paralysis” mode even for mundane
decisions like buying a TV! There are three other important factors that also
contributes to the digital trend.
Internet and Information Technology is not the “only” technology. There
are numerous disciplines like medicine, Genealogy, Nano Technology, Robotics,
Astronomy, Mathematics and every other discipline that we can think of, have
kept pace with technology advancement and adopted to further their respective discipline.
This is directly impacting and benefiting the human kind which in turn has
further fuelled the thirst for knowledge. The “internet knowledge reservoir” is
getting filled every second of the day and the “Google Tap” is helping us lap
this knowledge whenever, wherever and with however much we want.
The third factor is about instant gratification. We are in an age where
we want our thirst for knowledge to be immediately quenched. With all the
knowledge disciplines converging in the information highway, accessing a
library across the continent, or getting oneself medically examined by a
specialist at the other end of the earth, keeping track of your loved ones
through Global Positioning System has become so easy that the term “World in my
Pocket” is fast becoming a reality.
Few years back, high end devices like GPS was a rage and was one of the
differentiators between a high end car and the low end one. But this class
distinction was also felled with the advent of smart phones. With Google
Navigation, common citizens have access to sophisticated technologies. This is
slowly erasing our time tested practice of stopping our cars and asking
directions from the local panwala. Getting lost is not easy anymore. Google
Translator is another classic example where our smartphone aka our trusted
personal assistant, can swiftly and accurately translate from our local
language to obscure language as Finnish. This is the fourth factor and the
driving factor behind Technology trend. Carrying multiple, bulky devices has
become passé. We are in the constant lookout for a “one cap that fits all” kind
of a solution and the mobile device satisfies this craving extremely well.
In the book Race Against the
Machine by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, have put a compelling
argument that the Digital Revolution is accelerating innovation, driving
productivity and irreversibly transforming employment and the economy. We would
soon see that the translator jobs will become obsolete similar to the clerks in
a bank because of the ATM machines. Good old tailors are becoming fast extinct
in larger cities. Soon Google cars will get the nod from governments around the
world and the familiar cab drivers would only be seen in the movies. In the
book, Erik has drawn a parallel of the technology acceleration to a chess board
and believes that we are currently in the 32nd square and the pace
of acceleration will be trail blazing from now on. The speed with which
technology will hit us and obliterate conventional jobs is going to catch many
of us by surprise. Many restaurants in China already employ robots rather than
waiters as they are cheaper than humans. Erik emphasizes that digital
technologies will encroach into areas that was hitherto purely human domain.
Super computers like “Watson” will use pattern matching and arrive at the same
or better conclusion than a general physician and will soon put Doctors out of
job. We can see this trend as many of the ailments and their remedies have
already been documented and easily accessible over internet. Other than jobs
that deals with creativity and innovation, most jobs that are repetitive that
can be automated will be automated.
In conclusion, as the digital technology accelerates the world will
converge. This will also lead to more independence. Our dependence on others to
guide us through this life will be on a downward path. Just as we will stop
halting at the nearest panwala for directions, we will stop visiting our
doctors even for life threatening ailments. The new advances in genome
sequencing would alert us of diseases that we may not get in years to come and
help us take preventive steps. As science disciplines integrates and Moore’s
law continues to hold true to its prediction, the digital technology trend will
continue to harness the universal knowledge in ever reducing size of devices.
To quote the translation from a Sanskrit Shloka:
न हि ज्ञानेन सदृशं पवित्रमिह विद्यते।
Here (in this world), there is nothing as pure(sublime) as
knowledge.
This is the trend and that is where we are all heading
subconsciously.
